The generalized tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on products from Mexico have not only left President Claudia Sheinbaum politically unharmed from potential economic damage but may also strengthen her position as Mexicans protest against a deal seen as unfair. Mexico's economy is certainly vulnerable to a trade war. Despite Trump’s threats of mass deportations, remittances are expected to continue contributing significantly to Mexico's economy.
Meanwhile, in the United States, the majority opposes new tariffs on imported goods, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll. Part of Sheinbaum's rising popularity is attributed to her successful appeal to nationalism and Mexican pride in the face of U.S. aggression, fertile ground in a country with a tense history with its northern neighbor.
According to analysts, Mexicans are more accustomed to economic hardships than Americans. Gerónimo Gutiérrez, former ambassador of Mexico to the United States, mentioned that the political wave Sheinbaum is experiencing will not last long, especially if the Mexican economy begins to collapse.
John Feeley, a former career diplomat and U.S. ambassador, pointed out that while Mexicans may suffer more from the consequences of a trade war, Americans are more likely to punish their politicians for inflation and other effects. In line with her call for national pride, Sheinbaum stated that she will describe the Mexican reaction, including retaliatory tariffs, at a rally in the Zócalo of Mexico City.
Some analysts warned that Sheinbaum must be cautious as Trump's tariff policies may impact the American electorate differently. Trump has acknowledged that tariffs may bring a little pain in the short term but will put the United States in a stronger position in the long term. For their part, drastic price increases on certain products in the United States are already being noticed as a consequence of the imposed tariffs.
The 25% tariffs that Trump imposed on Mexican products could lead to export losses of up to $42 billion and a potential impact of 4% on GDP, marking a turning point in relations between both countries. Despite Trump's sporadic tariffs, Sheinbaum's popularity has increased and her approval ratings have reached 85%, 15 percentage points higher than in October.
An additional safety net for Mexican families is the diaspora, particularly in the United States. Remittances sent by Mexicans working in the United States to their families in Mexico act as a buffer in times of crisis, something that does not happen to the same extent in the United States.
